{"id":19965,"date":"2025-07-06T09:05:44","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T07:05:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thesmartcityjournal.cibeles.net\/sin-categoria\/the-impact-of-campaign-pledges-on-voter-decision-making\/"},"modified":"2025-07-06T09:09:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T07:09:09","slug":"the-impact-of-campaign-pledges-on-voter-decision-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thesmartcityjournal.com\/en\/articles\/the-impact-of-campaign-pledges-on-voter-decision-making","title":{"rendered":"The impact of campaign pledges on voter decision-making"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Politicians rarely hold back on what they promise voters. But do these campaign pledges actually sway voter choice? To find out, researchers dived into the data<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Campaign promises, or pledges, are a staple of any democratic election cycle. \u201cVoters use pledges to select between candidates and parties and to keep them accountable after the election,\u201d says Carsten Jensen(opens in new window), a political scientist at Aarhus University(opens in new window). \u201cWithout pledges, voters would be left with much less information.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But do voters decide based on the election pledges political parties make? \u201cAlthough this is a key assumption in most democratic theories and, seemingly, among parties who issue dozens of pledges during campaigns, the scientific literature does not provide a clear answer to this question,\u201d adds Jensen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Helping to bring clarity to the issue is the EU-funded PLEDGEDEM project.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Gathering data on voter behaviour<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With the goal of determining whether election pledges actually matter, the project, which received support from the European Research Council(opens in new window), dug into the data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cReliable data on voter behaviour is notoriously hard to come by,\u201d explains Jensen, who coordinates the project. \u201cThat\u2019s why we opted to use two innovative datasets that, together, provide us with an unbiased estimate of voters\u2019 awareness and use of pledges.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first dataset consists of panel surveys with embedded conjoint experiments conducted both before and after national elections. The second dataset codes all the collected pledges made during an election, noting whether they were kept or broken and how the mass media reported on them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cWhat makes this two-pronged approach so unique is that it allows us to study the electoral effects of pledges in real time as the campaign unfolds,\u201d notes Jensen.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>The limited impact of political pledges<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With this data in hand, the project determined that political pledges have a rather limited impact on voter behaviour. \u201cDespite the many dozens \u2013 sometimes even hundreds \u2013 of pledges each party makes, they rarely sway how an individual votes,\u201d remarks Jensen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For example, during the 2019 Danish national election campaign, researchers estimated that the most salient pledges affected voter choice by between 1.1 and 2.1 % (averaged across the electorate).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">However, despite their minimal impact, Jensen is quick to point out that this doesn\u2019t mean pledges are inconsequential. \u201cWhile modest, these effects can be decisive in the often highly competitive context of modern elections,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Ulterior motives for campaign pledges<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If campaign pledges have such a limited impact on voters, why do political parties continue to make them?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One theory is that these pledges aren\u2019t intended for voters but for other audiences altogether, such as interest groups. Or perhaps they are used to garner media attention that could help a party standout in an increasingly competitive political landscape?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cThis would all have major implications on our understanding of political behaviour, party politics and normative theories of democracy, and thus deserves to be explored further,\u201d concludes Jensen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The project is currently conducting research on such issues.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Politicians rarely hold back on what they promise voters. But do these campaign pledges actually sway voter choice? To find out, researchers dived into the data Campaign promises, or pledges, are a staple of any democratic election cycle. \u201cVoters use pledges to select between candidates and parties and to keep them accountable after the election,\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_scj_primary_category_id":130,"_scj_featured":true,"_scj_featured_from":"","_scj_featured_until":"","_scj_featured_order":129,"_scj_visibility_class":"current","_scj_layout_family":"standard","_scj_article_style":"","_scj_display_overrides":[],"_scj_intro_image_id":19964,"_scj_intro_alt":"The impact of campaign pledges on voter decision-making","_scj_intro_caption":"","_scj_intro_class":"","_scj_intro_float":"","_scj_full_image_id":19964,"_scj_full_alt":"The impact of campaign pledges on voter decision-making","_scj_full_caption":"","_scj_full_class":"","_scj_full_float":"","_scj_media_type":"","_scj_media_provider":"","_scj_media_external_id":"","_scj_media_url":"","_scj_media_poster_id":0,"_scj_media_width":0,"_scj_media_height":0,"_scj_media_aspect_ratio":"","_scj_media_description":"","_scj_gallery_items":[],"_scj_related_post_ids":[],"_scj_additional_authors":[],"scj_layout_family":"standard","scj_media_provider":"","scj_media_url":"","scj_full_caption":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[130],"tags":[2361,2716],"class_list":["post-19965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-democracy","tag-elections"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The impact of campaign pledges on voter decision-making - thesmartcityjournal.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thesmartcityjournal.com\/en\/articles\/the-impact-of-campaign-pledges-on-voter-decision-making\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The impact of campaign pledges on voter decision-making - thesmartcityjournal.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Politicians rarely hold back on what they promise voters. 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